Monday, April 20, 2020

British Pound (GBP) Latest: Brexit Talks May Weigh on GBP/USD and FTSE 100 Prices

BREXIT, BRITISH POUND (GBP) AND FTSE 100 - NEWS, PRICES AND ANALYSIS:

  • FTSE 100 struggling to move higher.
  • GBP/USD downside pressure remains.

BREXIT TALKS RESUME, POTENTIAL TIMETABLE FOR UK ENDING CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN

Volatility in the UK asset markets may take a turn higher this week as trade talks resume between the UK and the EU. Last week the UK negotiator David Frost said that there would be no extension of the Brexit transition period – December 31 2020 – even if the EU request one, leaving little changed in the gridlocked relationship between the two. If no progress is made at this week’s meeting, UK assets will likely come under pressure again, leaving their recent gains at risk.
The UK government is also said to be looking at a timetable to reopen the country from the coronavirus lockdown. Early May has been mentioned for the first stage of the process if certain criteria are met with the UK government keen to get the economy re-booted as soon as possible.
The FTSE 100 is currently stalling around 5,800 after having regained around 35% of the January 20 – March 22 sharp sell-off. Technical resistance is seen at 5,883 (50-dma), ahead of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 5,889 and the recent one-month high at 5,948. Short-term support is seen at 5,524.
FTSE 100 DAILY PRICE CHART (JULY 2019 – APRIL 20, 2020)
FTSE 100 daily price chart

The short-term series of lower highs on the GBP/USD daily chart suggest the pair may continue to move lower with an area between 1.2405 and 1.2420 the first zone of support ahead of 1.2360. The pair may struggle to break 1.2648 if bullish sentiment returns.

GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (AUGUST 2019 – APRIL 20, 2020)

gbp/usd price chart

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Monday, January 27, 2020

EUR/USD Rate Forecast: November Low on Radar Following ECB Meeting

EUR/USD RATE TALKING POINTS

EUR/USD remains under pressure following the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, with the November low (1.0981) on the radar as the exchange rate extends the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.

EUR/USD RATE FORECAST: NOVEMBER LOW ON RADAR FOLLOWING ECB MEETING

EUR/USD extends the decline from earlier this month as the ECB sticks to the same script and endorses a dovish forward guidance at its first meeting for 2020.
The Euro came under pressure as President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the “Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, and the ECB may expand its balance sheet throughout 2020 as the risks surrounding the Euro area “remain tilted to the downside.”
Image of ECB interest rates
It seems as though the ECB is in no rush to alter the monetary policy outlook even though the US and France reach a trade truce, and the Governing Council may continue to rely on non-standard measures to support the economy as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.
In turn, the Euro may face headwinds ahead of the next meeting on March 12 and EUR/USD may continue to give back the rebound from the 2019 low (1.0885) as the correction stalls ahead of the August high (1.1250).

EUR/USD RATE DAILY CHART

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart
Source: Trading View
  • The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate cleared the May-low (1.1107) following the Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with Euro Dollar trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.0879) during the first week of October.
  • The monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with monthly high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • With that in mind, the correction from the 2019 low (1.0879) may continue to unravel amid the failed attempt to test the August high (1.1250), and the bearish price action from the start of the month looks poised to persist as EUR/USD extends the decline from the December high (1.1239), with the exchange rate snapping the upward trend from late last year.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights similar dynamic as the oscillator failed to preserve the bullish formation from November after failing to push into overbought territory.
  • As a result, the recent series of lower highs and lows brings the November low (1.0981) on the radar, but need a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) to open up the 2019 low (1.0879).
                                                  

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GBP/USD Respecting Support as BoE Decision Nears

STERLING (GBP) PRICE, CHART AND ANALYSIS:

  • There is a 50/50 chance of a UK rate cut this Thursday.
  • EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier speaks later today.

BRITISH POUND (GBP) LIKELY TO REMAIN RANGEBOUND AHEAD OF ‘LIVE’ BOE MEETING

Sterling is marginally better-bid in early European turnover as traders remain focused on Thursday’s Bank of England meeting where there is currently a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. The last cut, in August 2016, came shortly after the UK voted to leave the EU, and it remains to be seen if the MPC will use this meeting to trim rates further, especially after last week’s better-than-expected PMI data for January. The common consensus now is for the MPC to vote 6-3 for unchanged rates - from 7-2 at the last meeting - with the central bank likely to wait for more hard data to indicate the strength, or not, of the UK economy.

POST-BREXIT TRADE TALKS – PREPARATIONS CONTINUE

The post-Brexit battle lines continue to be drawn with the EU reiterating today that the UK must allow the EU continued access to UK fishing waters in order to obtain future concessions and continued access to the EU financial services sector. Whether this is an EU ‘red-line’ or is just part of a bargaining position will be seen over the next few weeks. Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is speaking at Queen’s University Belfast later today and his commentary may well dampen any further Sterling upside.
GBP/USD EDGING BACK TOWARDS 1.3100
Cable is currently nudging higher and trying to re-take 1.3100. The pair have broken through minor resistance from the 20- and 50-day moving averages, currently at 1.3065 and 1.3087 respectively, although a close above both will be needed to underpin the next move higher. Resistance either side of 1.3150 guards the short-term target of 1.3177, last Friday’s high. This near three-week high may prove difficult to better with the BoE meeting looming on the horizon. Short-term support between 1.3050 and 1.3058.
GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (AUGUST 2019 – JANUARY 27, 2020)
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

                                                                            

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Friday, January 24, 2020

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Downtrend May Have Restarted

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro break of 4-month support sets the stage for downtrend resumption
  • Initial support at 1.0968, breakdown may expose October swing bottom
  • Close above 1.1149 probably needed to offset near-term selling pressure
The Euro has broken support guiding its recovery against the US Dollar since the beginning of October. That paints the rise as corrective within the context of longer-term downtrend that has now apparently resumed. The reversal has been in the making since the beginning of the year, following in the wake of a false breakout above the 1.12 figure (as expected).
From here, the next layer of immediate support lines up in the 1.0968-90 congestion region. A break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis probably opens the door to a challenge of October’s swing bottom at 1.0879. Neutralizing immediate selling pressure likely requires a reversal to close above downward-sloping resistance set from the December 31 high, as well as the inflection point at 1.1149.
Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Measuring the depth of prior downswings within the current trend – in play since mid-2018 – produces an average decline of 4.6 percent. A repeat of these trading patterns here would imply a move lower that puts EUR/USD just above the 1.07 figure. That would amount to the lowest level since April 2017. Naturally, immediately prevailing market conditions might still dictate a larger or smaller move.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Downtrend May Have Restarted

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Friday, November 16, 2018

How to Recover Your Wallet if Your Private Keys Are Lost

Before the internet brought us dog videos and your grandmother’s Facebook updates, losing money was a traumatic experience. Dropping $20 meant you’d probably never see it again – all you’d have left is that unmistakable sensation of feeling stupid.
At least in the fiat world, it’s become a little bit harder to lose money. Centralized institutions mean you can recover usernames and passwords in a jiffy – answering a few security questions or showing your ID to regain access. Help is even available if you burn thousands of dollars in a fire, thanks to a specialist department that pieces them back together and exchanges them for shiny new notes.
Unfortunately, this is one hurdle that the crypto industry has been struggling to overcome – and in some cases, the consequences have been eye-wateringly costly.
Ownership of cryptocurrency is determined by who holds the private keys to these assets. Because of this, they are far more important than a password could ever be. Storing these codes on the cloud can be calamitous in case you get hacked, while holding them on your phone can be devastating if the device is lost, stolen or damaged. Crypto enthusiasts have heeded advice from experts by getting clever and recording them offline – using a USB stick or even an old-fashioned piece of paper – only to forget where they put it or throw it away without realizing its significance.
Horror stories like this are well documented – including on Cointelegraph. Here’s looking at you, Welshman who threw away a hard drive which held 7,500 Bitcoin (worth about $47 million at today’s rates.) And let’s not forget you, anonymous Australian who fears his wife will go ballistic after a cheaply made USB stick storing thousands of Bitcoins corrupted, along with his dreams of infinite riches.
Most of the time, nothing can be done when private keys are lost. It’s perhaps no surprise then that, last year, a digital forensics firm estimated that four million Bitcoins are gone forever. But although it might be a little bit too late for those who have already lost a fortune, new technology designed to help people recover their private keys is starting to emerge (and hopefully it’ll be a little bit more effective than relying on hypnosis).

Saving private keys

Some blockchain platforms believe “zero-knowledge proofs” – a relatively new concept in the cryptographic world which emerged in the 1980s – could transform attitudes to private keys, enabling them to be recovered without compromising security.
The concept can be explained like this: being able to prove to somebody that you know something without actually revealing what you know.
One well-known example is known as “Two Balls And The Colorblind Friend.” Let’s imagine you have a green and a red ball – identical in every way apart from color – and a friend who can’t tell the difference between them. Nonetheless, you want to prove they are different colors.
Your colorblind companion would put the balls behind their back – and would reveal one of them. He would then put the balls behind his back again, bring one out and ask: “Did I switch the ball?”
Given the difference in colors, it would be easy for you to say whether or not a switch has happened, but impossible for him to tell. Repeating this process over and over would help your friend realize they are different colors, because you’d always get the answer right. Crucially, you’ll never have revealed which ball is green and which is red.
SovereignWallet uses zero-knowledge encryption to enable its users to recover their private keys by downloading the app on another smartphone should the device they normally use end up lost or broken. This is achievable because the key is encrypted with their password and PIN – and stored securely on the network’s server. As an alternative, they also have the option to retrieve private keys by relaying the mnemonic words which are generated at the time these codes are created.
The platform, which enables crypto to be transferred in a messenger-style format and aims to create a happy medium between banking-grade security and usability, believes blockchain technology could help drive down the cost of remittances, where foreign workers send money across borders back home to their loved ones.

Protecting assets

Of course, the concern for cryptocurrency holders is that any mechanism which enables them to recover their private keys – however desirable – could put their funds at risk of being stolen by bad actors. This is why the zero-knowledge element of such measures is crucial.
Returning to the example of the colorblind friend, imagine the red and the green ball represent passwords, and you’re the only person in the world who can see their color. This would mean a fraudster who tried to conduct the same experiment to convince your colorblind friend would end up making too many mistakes during the switching experiment – and fail to convince them – because they don’t know either.
SovereignWallet also uses machine learning security in its infrastructure, technology that’s also relied upon by the likes of Palantir, the Silicon Valley tech giant founded by Peter Thiel.
Instead of solely relying on a usernames and password, the crypto wallet monitors a user’s usage patterns and kicks into action whenever there is an anomaly. Additional authentication is needed whenever a user logs in on a new device, and successfully passing these extra measures result in them being automatically logged out of the smartphones they have used in the past. SovereignWallet says it strives to be a “smart application that can think and not be deceived easily” through a range of other features, too, such as technology which stops the app being used on PC-based emulator programs instead of a real smartphone

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Wednesday, October 3, 2018

British Masters Golf Tournament Signs On Crypto Startup Sponsor

A cryptocurrency startup is officially sponsoring a professional golf tournament in the U.K.
LIFElabs, a philanthropy-focused cryptocurrency startup, is sponsoring the Sky Sports British Masters golf competition next week, the company announced Wednesday. It joins companies such as Adidas, Ladbrokes and TaylorMade in sponsoring the
As part of its sponsorship, the startup will hold a contest on the ninth hole for participants: the first player to hit a hole-in-one will win £10,000, with a further £10,000 being split between Cancer Research UK, a research and awareness charity, and the European Tour Foundation, the official charity of the British Masters.
The tournament, scheduled for October 11-14, will be hosted by 2013 U.S. Open champion Justin Rose.
European Tour head of commercial partnerships Max Hamilton said in a statement that he was "delighted" to welcome LIFElabs as a sponsor, saying the company is "a progressive business and a great fit for the Sky Sports British Masters."
Similarly, LIFElabs CEO Luke Chittock said the startup is looking to "invest in the future of humanity," in a statement.
"We know that sport brings people together in a completely unparalleled way," he said, adding:
"We partnered with the European Tour because it is an innovative brand within the golfing world, with one eye firmly fixed on the future. As such, both LIFElabs and the British Masters are looking to make a real difference to people's lives, both here in the UK and across the rest of the word